Sunday, March 15, 2009

2009 Election Forecast: Bad News for BJP

Things look grim for the BJP. As per my latest calculation, I can't see the lotus bloom in more than 130 seats. That's 8 seats lesser than 2004. Here's the statewise break-up as I see it:

NORTH - 26/126
Uttar Pradesh - 6/80
Uttar Khand - 4/5
Punjab - 3/13
Chandigarh - 1/1
Himachal - 3/4
Haryana - 3/10
Delhi - 4/7
J&K - 2/6

WEST - 72/143
Maharashtra - 18/48
Goa - 1/2
Daman - 1/1
Dadra Nagar - 1/1
Madhya Pradesh - 17/29
Chattisgarh - 7/11
Rajasthan - 9/25
Gujarat - 18/26

SOUTH - 14/131
Kerala - 0/20
Karnataka - 14/28
Tamil Nadu - 0/39
Pondichery - 0/1
Andhra - 0/42
Lakshadweep - 0/1

EAST - 26/143
Bihar - 10/40
Jharkand - 8/14
West Bengal - 0/42
Orissa - 3/21
Assam - 3/14
Arunachal - 1/2
Tripura - 0/2
Mizoram - 0/1
Manipur - 0/2
Meghalaya - 0/2
Nagaland - 0/1
Andamans - 1/1
Sikkim - 0/1

TOTAL - 130/543

For BJP to better it's performance, the only two places with scope is UP & Andhra. In both the places, I don't see any chance of an alliance happening. In fact without Vajpayee, even 6 seats in UP is a tall order. So all you BJP supporters, be prepared for the worst.

3 comments:

SatheeshKrishnamurthy said...

You don't need to prepare us for the worst. 5 years of misrule of the Congress / UPA has hardened us sufficiently. There can't be anything worse than what we experienced these last 5 years. Of course, I am counting we wouldn't have the mortification of seeing Mayawati or the Left ruling us next!

Nazilin Vaheed said...

BJP may get more seats from the West. If so congress will go nearer to 100. If Congress get more seats from West, it will go upto 130 ans BJB will get near 100.

This time Congress +BJP would be 230 or 240.

How long the workers of congress from Wesern India suffer the foolish leadership from UP. (Some one like Rahul Gandhi) Stupid decision not to have alliance all india level may cost congress around 30 seats.
Opposition leader of Kerala ,Ummen Chandy strongly protested Rahul, when he removed the Youth Congress president of Kerala recently. Rahul had to backtrack. This trend will intense in future. Rahul is too tiny for a big Party like Congress. There is a long way for him to mature as a National Leader, atleast ten years. Sonia did her best to keep her party live for 5 years. Rahul destroyed everything in 5 weeks.

In AP it is hopeless state. Future of congress is much depend on the results from Karnataka and Orissa.Huge losses in these states would make Congress a Western India party, which trigger other leaders challenging them.

Breaking off of UPA affected national appeal of Congress.

Potter said...

PRP Will Sweep AP Polls:

Praja rajyam Party of Chiranjeevi will come in power with a big majority in AP Assembly Elections this year.

Peopls of AP do not want TDP nor Congress - BJP is already a dead Party in AP - and TRS has been suicidal in last 5 years.

Habeebuddin Pitlam