Friday, March 20, 2009

2009 Election Forecast: Congress will hold ground

The biggest slowdown India has ever seen is here. But the rudderless BJP is just not able to exploit it to create an anti-incumbency wave strong enough to dislodge the congress. My estimation is congress should end up with 143 seats, more or less same as last time. Not at all a bad performance by any standards. And by emerging as the single largest party, congress is better placed to form a coalition...

NORTH - 18/126
Uttar Pradesh - 4/80
Uttar Khand - 1/5
Punjab - 5/13
Chandigarh - 0/1
Himachal - 1/4
Haryana - 3/10
Delhi - 3/7
J&K - 1/6

WEST - 48/143
Maharashtra - 8/48
Goa - 1/2
Daman - 0/1
Dadra Nagar - 0/1
Madhya Pradesh - 12/29
Chattisgarh - 4/11
Rajasthan - 15/25
Gujarat - 8/26

SOUTH - 46/131
Kerala - 10/20
Karnataka - 9/28
Tamil Nadu - 3/39
Pondichery - 1/1
Andhra - 22/42
Lakshadweep - 1/1

EAST - 31/143
Bihar - 0/40
Jharkand - 4/14
West Bengal - 7/42
Orissa - 12/21
Assam - 4/14
Arunachal - 1/2
Tripura - 0/2
Mizoram - 0/1
Manipur - 1/2
Meghalaya - 1/2
Nagaland - 0/1
Andamans - 0/1
Sikkim - 0/1

TOTAL - 143/543

3 comments:

SatheeshKrishnamurthy said...

The way BJP is currently running its campaign (if we can call it 'running') makes me suspect 'match fixing' has moved to political elections as well. As for your prognosis, for this country's sake, I hope you are proven wrong.

anuradha said...

Sashi Taroor is contesting from trivandrum. Wish him all the best.

http://www.mallutalk.com/bmallu/belection2009/candidates.jsp?constituency=1

Nazilin Vaheed said...

TOTAL - 143/543 for congress is too ambitious.
Conress got almost this much seats when it was with strong allies in AP, Bihar and TN.
Now after being in power for 5 years, contesting alone or with less allies, it will
be reduced to some where near 100.

Following of your estimates are too ambitious.

Rajastan - 15/25 , may get only 10 maximum.
Kerala - 10/20 , may get 5 in addition to 2,3 for allies.
West Bengal - 7/42 will be 5 or less this time.
Andhra - 22/42 - very diffiult to get more than 10.
Punjab - 5/13 may get 3 maximum.

22 seats less - 117.

This is the maximum congress can get. Orissa and Kernatak may not be very easy for ongress.