Sunday, March 29, 2009

2009 Election Analysis: Third Front & BJP face dead heat.

For ease of calculation, I have classified TDP + Left + AIADMK + Deve Gowda's Party + BSP + Naveen Patnaik + PMK as Third Front. But Mayawati, TDP, AIADMK & Deve Gowda may not necessarily be with the Third Front, post elections. So bear that in mind. My forecast is Mayawati will do very well. Jaya will do decently. Chandrababu & Deve Gowda won't. Naveen will rue breaking up with BJP. West India will be a complete wipe out for the Third Front. Au contraire, South will be a romp for Third Front. Overall, Third Front might just end up with the same number of seats as BJP.

NORTH - 44/126
Uttar Pradesh - 44/80
Uttar Khand - 0/5
Punjab - 0/13
Chandigarh - 0/1
Himachal - 0/4
Haryana - 0/10
Delhi - 0/7
J&K - 0/6

WEST - 0/143
Maharashtra - 0/48
Goa - 0/2
Daman - 0/1
Dadra Nagar - 0/1
Madhya Pradesh - 0/29
Chattisgarh - 0/11
Rajasthan - 0/25
Gujarat - 0/26

SOUTH - 51/131
Kerala - 6/20
Karnataka - 5/28
Tamil Nadu - 25/39
Pondichery - 0/1
Andhra - 14/42
Lakshadweep - 0/1

EAST - 35/143
Bihar - 0/40
Jharkand - 0/14
West Bengal - 28/42
Orissa - 6/21
Assam - 0/14
Arunachal - 0/2
Tripura - 1/2
Mizoram - 0/1
Manipur - 0/2
Meghalaya - 0/2
Nagaland - 0/1
Andamans - 0/1
Sikkim - 0/1

TOTAL - 130/543

2 comments:

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Nazilin Vaheed said...

You gave one seat for Third front from Thripura.
I think you should put a zero for them there.

I verified the the results in last election from election commission web site.

In Thripura west 1 . TRIPURA WEST CPM bagged 493591 votes last times, all other candidates
put together got only half of it.

In Thripura east , CPM got 411241 votes last time , here also all other candidates
put together got only half of it.

If you think they loose one seat , they will sure loose the other too in such a big current against them.
Tripura is a small state.