Sunday, March 29, 2009

2009 Elections Forecast: Small parties hold the key

As per my take, the smaller parties hold the key for the next coalition. It's neither the BJP nor the Congress. Perhaps the next government won't be called NDA or UPA. It will be a hotch-potch under some other name. May be with a dark horse from NDA or UPA as the PM. Here's what the small parties will end up getting:

AIADMK + PMK = 25
AGP (Assam Gana Parishad) = 5
Akali Dal = 5
BJD (Naveen Patnaik's) = 6
BSP (Mayawati's) = 44
Chautala = 5
Deve Gowda's Janata Dal = 5
JMM (Jharkand Mukti Morcha) = 4
Kerala Small Parties = 4
Lalu + Ram Bilas = 12
Left Front = 35
Mulayam's Samajwadis = 24
Nitish Kumar's JDU = 16
North Eastern Parties = 5
Omar Abdullah = 4
Praja Rajyam = 5
Sharad Pawar's NCP = 6
Shiv Sena = 16
TDP + TRS = 14
Trinamool = 7
Vijaykanth = 2

TOTAL = 247

Now isn't that a shocker? 50% of India's Lok Sabha will be occupied by smaller parties. It's never happened before. It will happen in 2009.

5 comments:

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SatheeshKrishnamurthy said...

Anantha, I know you do your homework before posting here but I disagree on a few predictions of yours: Vijaykanth - 2? Even he wouldn't be betting on it. Left - 35? Even including a couple in TN I think it would be much less this time. Remember they are in sticky wicket both in WB and Kerala. I doubt if Praja Rajyam would win even 1. AIADMK and PMK would win more like 30. Assuming they go alone. All these reduce your tally of 247 to probably 210. But ya, your basic point still holds good. Small, indeed, looks powerful in India. Not necessarily beautiful.

Nazilin Vaheed said...

Your analysis in general about small parties getting more share of seats is correct.
In fact this trend will intense in future and may spread to Western India too.

Your prediction about Left getting 35 seems flawed.
Let us take Kerala scenario. In another post you gave 10 seats to congress from kerala and in this post
you gave 4 seats to small kerala parties.
In Congress front only 3 seats are contested by small parties ( 2 Muslim leage , 1 Kerala congress)
In Left front only one seat for small party (1, Kerala congress Joseph )
CPM ,CPI or their common independant contest all 19 remaninings seats )
Therfore you thinks all 4 of them will win. And the rest 20-(10+4) = 6 will be bagged by CPM and CPI.

I would say yo are far away from the truth. In fact of 20 seats in Kerala 6 seats are sure win for CPM.
(Kasargode,Vadakara,Palakkad,Alathur,Attingal and Kollam).

Congress and its front can claim that only for 4 seats. Reamining seats see tough battle.

Left would grab mostly 10/11 in addition to one KC J.

In West Bengal , more than 20 rural seats Left is winning with huge
margin for years. Even though the magority may come down , they will sure
retain all of them. In fact TMC and Congress are also facing problems. In Malda congress
may not be able to maintain the legacy of Ganikhan Chowdhury, one seat may be lost.
Mamta's middle class urban voters will not be enthused by Nandhigram and Singur.
In fact nandhigram/singur bought confusion to both left and right.
Left would be able to manage with out much losses due to his organised propoganda
and legacy of long winning track.For them losses at rural Bengal will not be enough to loose seats now.

The worst case left would get 32 seats in WB.

They would get 2 seats from tripura and 2 from AP and minimum 2 from TN.

Therfore total = 11+32+2+2+2 = 49.

This is when we assume the loose 10 sitting seats mainly from Kerala and we ignore their
chances in one each seat they contest in Kashmir, Lakhadeep, Orissa and Rajastan.

Nazilin Vaheed said...

Your analysis in general about small parties getting more share of seats is correct.
In fact this trend will intense in future and may spread to Western India too.

Your prediction about Left getting 35 seems flawed.
Let us take Kerala scenario. In another post you gave 10 seats to congress from kerala and in this post
you gave 4 seats to small kerala parties.
In Congress front only 3 seats are contested by small parties ( 2 Muslim leage , 1 Kerala congress)
In Left front only one seat for small party (1, Kerala congress Joseph )
CPM ,CPI or their common independant contest all 19 remaninings seats )
Therfore you thinks all 4 of them will win. And the rest 20-(10+4) = 6 will be bagged by CPM and CPI.

I would say yo are far away from the truth. In fact of 20 seats in Kerala 6 seats are sure win for CPM.
(Kasargode,Vadakara,Palakkad,Alathur,Attingal and Kollam).

Congress and its front can claim that only for 4 seats. Reamining seats see tough battle.

Left would grab mostly 10/11 in addition to one KC J.

In West Bengal , more than 20 rural seats Left is winning with huge
margin for years. Even though the magority may come down , they will sure
retain all of them. In fact TMC and Congress are also facing problems. In Malda congress
may not be able to maintain the legacy of Ganikhan Chowdhury, one seat may be lost.
Mamta's middle class urban voters will not be enthused by Nandhigram and Singur.
In fact nandhigram/singur bought confusion to both left and right.
Left would be able to manage with out much losses due to his organised propoganda
and legacy of long winning track.For them losses at rural Bengal will not be enough to loose seats now.

The worst case left would get 32 seats in WB.

They would get 2 seats from tripura and 2 from AP and minimum 2 from TN.

Therfore total = 11+32+2+2+2 = 49.

This is when we assume the loose 10 sitting seats mainly from Kerala and we ignore their
chances in one each seat they contest in Kashmir, Lakhadeep, Orissa and Rajastan.

Karthik Narayan said...

nice work...

BTW our India quiz went on awesome :) many thanks for the help